Positioned
for
the shift.

Bitcoin’s four-year cycle has historically been driven by the halving supply shock, retail FOMO, and eventual institutional reallocation. What’s different in 2025–2026 is the structural floor created by spot ETFs — $115 billion in institutionally managed exposure that didn’t exist in prior cycles. The drawdown playbook has changed.

The $60K–$80K consolidation zone we saw in 2024 proved to be a major psychological anchor. The current range around $70K–$75K is doing the same thing — shaking out weak hands while long-term holders accumulate. On-chain data confirms this: exchange outflows remain elevated, long-term holder supply is near all-time highs.

The macro setup is also increasingly constructive. A new Fed chair aligned with the administration’s rate preferences, a potential resolution to the Iran conflict reducing oil price pressure, and continued deglobalization driving sovereign wealth funds toward non-sovereign stores of value. Bitcoin is the clearest beneficiary of all three.

My view: the $75K gamma wall is the near-term test. A weekly close above it likely accelerates the move toward $100K+ into year-end. I’m not trimming here — I’m watching for dips to add.

The views expressed are personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

For 80 years, the global economy ran on a simple architecture: the US provided security, the dollar provided liquidity, and everyone else provided labor and goods. That architecture is fracturing — not collapsing, but fundamentally reorganizing.

The signals are everywhere. Supply chains are being reshored. Trade blocs are forming along geopolitical lines. Sovereign wealth funds are diversifying away from US Treasuries. Central banks are buying gold at record rates. The Iran conflict is a symptom, not a cause — the underlying dynamic is a world moving from unipolar to multipolar.

Most traditional portfolios — 60/40, index-heavy, dollar-denominated — are implicitly a bet on the continuation of the old order. I think that’s the wrong bet for the next decade. The assets that benefit from deglobalization are those with sovereignty, scarcity, and non-correlation to the existing system: gold, Bitcoin, energy infrastructure, and companies building the new logistics of a fragmented world.

This isn’t a doomsday view — it’s a reallocation view. The world keeps working, it just works differently. Capital that positions ahead of that reorganization will outperform significantly.

The views expressed are personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

In the 1800s, the railroad boom created enormous wealth — but most of it wasn’t made by the railroad companies themselves, which were frequently overbuilt and went bankrupt. The real money was made by the steel companies, the land developers, and the towns that grew up around the rail hubs.

AI is following a similar pattern. The headline winners — OpenAI, Anthropic, the model labs — may or may not be the ultimate value capture. But the infrastructure underneath them: the data centers, the power generation, the networking equipment, the chip fabs — that’s where the durable economic moats are being built.

My focus in the AI space is on companies with pricing power over the physical constraints of AI: compute, energy, and connectivity. The demand for these resources is essentially inelastic — every AI company needs them, and supply takes years to build. That’s a pricing dynamic I want to be long.

The orbital compute angle — AI data centers in space — is still early stage but directionally correct. The physics of heat dissipation in space, combined with solar power abundance and low-latency orbital positions, make this a serious infrastructure play for the 2030s. SpaceX’s role in making orbital access cheap is what makes this possible.

The views expressed are personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Our current global monetary system is built on credit. The original idea was elegant: take on credit, deploy that liquidity into improving processes and technology, deliver better products and services, generate higher profitability, and use the excess to pay down the debt. Sustained economic growth through disciplined leverage. Sound in theory.

Credit, though, should be limited — just as it is for the rest of us. Our personal credit cards come with a credit limit. We cannot infinitely increase that limit to service near-term needs without entering a debt spiral that becomes impossible to escape. The discipline of constraint is what keeps the system honest.

The United States, however, occupies a unique position. As the issuer of the world’s reserve currency, the US can issue new debt through Treasury issuances even as existing debt remains elevated — and pay for that debt by printing new dollars into existence through the Federal Reserve. The constraint is gone. Debt repayment is no longer limited by the ability of the country to be productive and profitable. It is limited only by the willingness to print.

And because unlimited dollars are now accessible, spending no longer needs to be prioritized toward reducing debt. The debt can continue to swell as long as interest payments are manageable. Spending can bleed into areas that benefit the few at the expense of the rest — and it does.

Most importantly: increasing the money supply at a compounding rate dilutes the value of the currency, causing everything around us to climb in nominal value to offset that dilution. This is the primary driver of inflation. From consumer goods and services to precious metals, real estate, and company stocks, prices rise. The scarcer the asset, the greater the effect.

The result is structural and predictable. Inflation destroys the purchasing power of those with no assets — the poor, the salaried, the savers in cash — while simultaneously bloating the value of assets held by the wealthy. The wealth gap widens not by accident, but by design.

In this regard, I would argue that inflation is a feature, not a bug. It is the logical output of a monetary policy built to sustain sovereign solvency at the cost of purchasing power for everyone else. Understanding this is the first step toward positioning your capital on the right side of the system.

The views expressed are personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The global economy, as we know it today, is built on an inflationary monetary system. Inflating the money supply keeps the economy stimulated, minimizes downturns, and maintains solvency at the sovereign level. It is, by design, a system of perpetual expansion.

But new money entering the economy does not distribute evenly. It follows what economists call the Cantillon Effect — benefiting those closest to the source of its creation, at the expense of those furthest from it, widening the wealth gap in the process.

Visualize a spring, sprouting from the US Federal Reserve. This is the source of global liquidity. From here, picture liquidity flowing outward to New York City, then London, Tokyo, Dubai, Hong Kong, Singapore, Shanghai, Mumbai, and other downstream financial hubs. It gushes from the west, gets narrower as it travels, trickles through emerging markets, and finally dries to a thin stream in the most remote corners of the global economy.

From each node, picture liquidity spreading outward like the branches of a tree — to the rest of that region or nation state. This distribution is not even. It is thickest near the source and thins exponentially the farther you move from it.

The implication is direct: in order to achieve financial freedom, get as close as possible to the source, where liquidity is largest and most abundant. Become your own node. Participate actively in the system of capital markets — growing your wealth while providing downstream liquidity to the rest of the system.

And critically: save your excess in scarce assets. Assets whose supply cannot be inflated. Assets that sit closest to the source and benefit most from the perpetual expansion of the system around them. This is not speculation — it is the logical conclusion of understanding how the system actually works.

The views expressed are personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.